Dollar/Swiss tests 55-dma: Commerzbank

Posted 2/11/10
LONDON, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Following is a selection of comments from analysts on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market. COMMERZBANK * EURO/DOLLAR: "Remains within the confines of its sideways pattern, the top of which lies at $1.4005 today. It is unclear if this is a consolidation or a top pattern, but our view will remain skewed to the downside while capped below 1.4005/80." * DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "USD/CHF has recovered and is probing the 55-day moving average at 0.9934 francs for the first time since June. We look for the market to remain well supported on dips to the 0.9749 short term support line and 0.9710, the 20-day ma. Technical indicators are positive and we look for gains to 1.00 then Fibonacci retracement at 1.0118 and 1.0330." * STERLING/DOLLAR: "We look for the rally higher to falter at $1.6108/34 (recent high and 3-month resistance line). This should hold the initial test and provoke some profit taking. Interim support lies at 1.5879 (20-day...
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Shares inch lower and dollar steady before Fed

Posted 2/11/10
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian shares fell but the dollar kept a tenuous grip on overnight gains in Asia on Tuesday ahead of U.S. elections and a Federal Reserve meeting that is expected to ease monetary policy. * The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside of Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> dropped 0.4 percent by 9:41 p.m. ET as material and financial stocks weakened. * Japan's Nikkei share average <.N225> fell to a seven-week low and the broader-based Topix index <.TOPX> hit a 19-month low, under pressure from the yen's strength as it hovers close to a record high against the dollar. * The Nikkei was off 0.1 percent and the Topix was down 0.2 percent. They are down 13 percent and 12 percent so far this year, respectively. * The dollar was last at 80.63 yen and within sight of a record low of 79.75 yen set in 1995. Markets were keeping a wary eye on the currency pair, with the risk of Japanese intervention seen...
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The RBA’s decision to raise interest rate increased demand on higher-yielding...

Posted 2/11/10
The Japanese currency declined against the greenback and its major counterparts during the Asian session, as the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly rose the interest rate, increasing the demand for higher-yielding currencies.  The euro inclined against the dollar during the Asian session trading over the level 1.3900, recording a high of 1.3936 and a low of 1.3880, and now it faces a resistance at 1.4000 which might weaken the upside movement of the pair. The daily momentum indicators show a possible rise yet the four hours momentum indicators show the pair in an overbought area.  The British pound rose in a narrow range against the dollar during the Asian session, recording a high of 1.6065 and a low of 1.6032, and now it trades around 1.6056 where the pair faces a resistance at 1.6100. The daily and four hours momentum indicators show the pair in an overbought area which may favor a downside movement.  The yen fell against the dollar, recording a high...
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Q+A-Will Japan intervene again on forex?

Posted 26/10/10
TOKYO, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The dollar has fallen within spitting distance of its postwar record low against the yen and market players say Japanese authorities may intervene again if it falls sharply, after they did so in September. A G20 pledge to avoid competitive currency devaluations has muddied the waters for Tokyo but policy-makers have since repeated said they will take decisive steps in the forex market when needed and that their stance on intervention is unchanged. But there is a growing impression among some traders that with a debate globally about competitive currency devaluation and Japan's recent criticism of South Korea for intervention, Tokyo may not intervene again, even though it says it might. The dollar has lost about 4 percent against the yen since the end of August and 13 percent so far this year, despite 2.1 trillion yen or $25 billion worth of intervention last month, with the U.S. currency sold across the board after the Federal Reserve signalled...
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Dollar retreats as investors await Fed QE

Posted 24/10/10
Major anticipation for the Federal Reserve quantitative easing measures forced the single currency to decline against majors in today’s trading as indicated by the US dollar index that tracks the performance of the dollar against a basket of currencies. The US dollar index dropped on the daily scale to 77.72, compared with the opening levels of 78.07, where it managed to reach the highest at 78.36 and the lowest at 77.59. The Fed will release its Beige Book later on today, which may show the extent of easing conditions and the course of recovery that floundered over the past period. Policy makers in Britain and the constant debates among them over the past few months drove the pound lower against most majors except the dollar. The pound fell as investors await the BOE’s next move on whether to provide markets with further stimuli or simply preserving the current monetary stand the bank is on. The pound-dollar pair rose to trade at 1.5745, compared with the...
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Royal Pound Falls Ahead of Spending Review

Posted 21/10/10
The British pound dropped against majors, except the dollar, ahead of the release of Osborne spending review as budget squeeze widened to the highest level since 1993 in September. Public sector net borrowing shortfall reached 15.6 billion pounds from 14.8 billion pounds a year ago, while cash requirements climbed to 20.7 billion pounds from 6.2 billion pounds. The harsh data supports the coalition-government that will be announcing the sharpest spending cut plan in generation later on today in the Spending Review that will show 83 billion pounds cuts from different sectors throughout the upcoming four-years. Other data released today from the UK showed that policy makers at the BoE split 7-1-1 for the first time in nearly a year with regard October's rate decision that included holding both borrowing cost and APF unchained at 0.50% and 200 billion pounds respectively. Andrew Sentance insisted on raising interest rate to 0.75% to avoid inflationary pressures while Adam Posen preferred adding 50 billion pounds to the current...
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